A new report issued by the European Commission warns that there will be insufficient spectrum available to deliver the potential benefits of 5G to Europe. This is the headline finding of a new analysis from analysts Real Wireless, published as part of the EU document: "Identification and quantification of key socio-economic data to support strategic planning for the introduction of 5G in Europe".
Real Wireless said the report highlights that if Europe continue to follow the conventional dedicated spectrum allocations per operator, as much as €141 billion of benefits and 2.3 million jobs could be missed.
The study forecasts the benefits, impacts and technical requirements for the introduction of 5G in Europe. In particular, it investigates what 5G might actually mean for users, industries, operators and other stakeholders.
The report recommends that the challenges presented by spectrum sharing must be addressed as early as possible in the development of 5G, if the full socio-economic benefits are to be enjoyed. Analysis showed there will be a requirement to share spectrum in all the spectrum ranges.
The analysis examined the minimum spectrum requirements for 5G to service all users, based on traffic demand calculated from scenarios associated with three key use cases – healthcare, utilities, and motorways.
It found that supporting the highly demanding applications proposed under the 5G vision, especially in the multi-gigabit connectivity environment of the motorway use case, would require larger quantities of spectrum to be available than is currently planned.
The study forecasts that in 2025 the socio-economic benefits deriving from the introduction of 5G capabilities could reach €113.1 billion per year in four key sectors, which will be the first users of 5G connectivity: automotive, health, transport and energy. Investments of approximately €56.6 billion will be likely to create 2.3 million jobs in Europe.
It is focused on four sectors that are most likely to take advantage of 5G technologies early on: automotive, healthcare, transport and utilities. Four different environments where to test the impact of 5G have been identified: smart cities, non-urban areas, smart homes and smart workplaces.
The study estimates that the total cost related to the radio network and transmission links of 5G deployment will be approximately €56 billion in 2020. This major public and private sector investment will have a multiplier effect across the economy and it is likely to create up to 2.3 million jobs directly and indirectly in Europe when 5G will be fully deployed.
The study indicates that the benefits of 5G introduction over the four studied industrial sectors (automotive, healthcare, transport and utilities) may reach €113.1 billion per year.
In year 2025 it is expected that €62.5 billion will arise from first order benefits in the four verticals examined in the study. First order benefits focus on the more direct benefits to the producers of goods and services.
There are also significant second order benefits, estimated at €50.6 billion in year 2025, arising from the ‘knock-on’ impacts from the use of goods and services. They generally focus on more indirect benefits to society.
The report can be found here:
Identification and quantification of key socio-economic data to support strategic planning for the introduction of 5G in Europe